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Technical Tools
Trend-Following IndicatorsMoving averages and trendlines measure price direction (trends). There are uptrends, downtrends, and trendless periods. These indicators work well when there are trends, either up or down, BUT CANNOT be used in trendless periods. Over the past 20 years, the market has spent about 25% of its time moving trendlessly, 25% in downtrends, and 50% in uptrends. AccuTrack® is a special form of trend-following indicator. It follows the relative trend of two different lines . . . but it is STILL a trend-following indicator that SHOULD NOT be used when both of the lines are trendless. Momentum IndicatorsMACD and RSI are momentum indicators. The momentum indicators work when prices bounce like a ball. As the ball rises, it gradually slows until it reaches its peak, and then it accelerates as it falls. Momentum indicators look for that bouncing action. The switches occur when the ball becomes essentially motionless at tops and bottoms. The indicator moves above/below the center as the fund reaches tops and bottoms. MACD and RSI may be used during trendless periods. During long and strong trends, both RSI and MACD can give much too early signals. MACD measures price-direction momentum. RSI measures price-range momentum and is superior to MACD in trendless periods. Trading-range IndicatorsRSI is a price-momentum trading-range indicator. Stochastics is a price direction trading-range indicator. These indicators move to upper and lower extremes without particular regard for the current trend. They are best used to find trend entry and exit points when trend-following indicators are failing. RSI and Stochastics may also be used to trade during trendless periods. These periods can produce impressive gains . . . but the trick is knowing when to start and stop playing the trading range. Stochastics and MACD measure essentially the same thing. And would, generally, NOT be used to confirm each other. Remember: Selection is BETTER than Timing
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